Western State College of Colorado

With UFC 116 a little more than 48 hours away, it's time for me to finally give my usuallyw rong (so don't bet on it) prediction.

Since this is a massive fight, and also because the rest of this card is about as interesting as watching grass grow, I'm going to break this match up down Dr. Jack style.

Experience
Lesnar has only fought 5 times. However, if he doesn't get caught by Frank Mir early on, he's probably undefeated. Brock has been out of the first round and there seems to be no limits to his superhuman stamina. Carwin has fought 12 times and won 12 times. He's never been out of the first round, but it would be foolish to assume that he doesn't have the cardio to go beyond the first. No matter what way you slice it, Carwin has twice the experience. Edge: Carwin.

Athleticism
Lesnar is a freak, his athleticism distorts the game like Shaq in his prime. Simply put, when you look at athleticism, there's Brock and there's everybody else in MMA. Carwin is no slouch in the athleticism department himself. He was a linebacker in college as well as a champion wrestler. He trains with the Jackson camp which has maximized the athletic potential of other guys like Rashad Evans. Major Edge: Lesnar.

Training Camp
Lesnar trains with some good guys like Jon Madsen and Kole Conrad. However, by remaining in Minnesota and isolating himself from other fighters, he's making it harder for himself. Carwin trains with the Greg Jackson camp which means he gets great game planning and the chance to train with fighters like Nate Marquardht. Major Edge: Carwin

Strength/Power
I've hammered the point that Brock is a freak. His power is best channeled through his big right hand his his tremendous takedowns. If Brock wins this fight it's going to have a lot to do with him overpowering Carwin. Carwin is tremendously strong as well and as he always says he has been building his strength since he was 16 years old. Both guys manhandled Frank Mir, but Carwin did less impressively, although Mir was bigger for that fight. Edge: Even for now.

Stand-up
Brock's stand up is mostly based on him being a huge dude who punches hard. Carwin seems to be a more disciplined and dangerous striker with the feet and in the clinch. His dirty boxing knocked Frank Mir down and out. Edge: Carwin

Grappling
Brock was a Division One champion wrestler. Carwin was a Division Two champion. Two high caliber wrestlers, but one's just a tad better. The big question is will Brock be able to take Carwin down? Slight Edge: Lesnar.

Ground game
We're not talking jujitsu here, but rather who will be able to get top position and how long will they be able to hold it. Carwin was taken down by a rapidly aging Gonzaga but was able to get up quickly. We haven't really seen Brock on the bottom. I have to imagine he'd be hard to hold down. You can ask frank Mir about what happens when Brock gets on top of you. Edge: Lesnar.

Other
Brock hasn't stepped into the Octagon in almost a year due to a disease that put a hole in his stomach and could have been fatal. On the other hand, Carwin looked awesome when he recently demolished Frank Mir. Edge: Carwin

Conclusion
So here's what we know: Brock Lesnar is an immovable object who is returning from a life threatening disease. When Brock is healthy, he's a force of nature and by all accounts he currently looks better than ever.

Shane Carwin is an unstoppable force. No one has been able to make it to the sound of the bell in the first round. I think Brock will be the first one to do that, but I think in the second round Carwin will take advantage of Brock's ring rust and knock him out.

Prediction Carwin by KO in the Secong Round.